It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. Attempting a side-by-side comparisons of the U.S. and Russian militaries is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, many experts say; the Russians have distinctly different strategic goals, and their military structure reflects that. What war with Iran could look like Military Times interviewed more than a dozen military experts, including current and former U.S. military officials, about how a conflict might begin and. The counterforce scenario examines what might happen if Russia attacked Americas nuclear arsenal with its own in an attempt to neutralize Americas nuclear-capable bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles. With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. When Russia is defeated in Ukraine, look to Chechnya Concerns over the ability of Ukraine to continue the war in the long-term might force Kyiv to take risky steps of its own to break the stalemate. While fighting has thus far remained quite limited, the desire to defend national prestige can rapidly become poisonous for even the wisest and most sensible leaders. And they started investing massively in a whole host of new technologies.". Photo Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP. Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. These tensions aren't new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. Fighting back would mean launching what remained of its ICBMs and any bombers that survived, using them to hunt down remaining Russian nuclear weapons. The problem is, with a nuclear power, you try to avoid a full-scale fighting.". Whether Modi and Xi fit such a description is a question for another day, but the governments that they lead have not managed to find a way to resolve the conflict. They're using sophisticated electronic warfare systems to jam the Ukrainians' communications, radar, GPS and early warning-detection equipment, said Ihor Dolhov, Ukraine's deputy defense minister for European integration. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war What would a Russian assault on Ukraine look like? Such a scenario would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. Having said that, accidents can happen and disagreements between two seemingly rational parties can and do quickly spiral out of control. In effect, the Russians could challenge the air superiority maintained even taken for granted by the U.S. over large swaths the Middle East for more than 20 years. What Would Russia Look Like Today if World War II Never Happened? 1st Class Jason Muzzy, an observer-controller from Company A, 1st Battalion, 161st Infantry Regiment, works with an Estonian soldier during a training exercise in Germany. ", "Of course, we had no access whatsoever to classified information and often used 'simple' rules when allocating weapons to targets.". So is it all doom and gloom? That's hypersonic missiles - super-charged projectiles that can fly at anywhere between five and 27 times the speed of sound and carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead. 04/23/2023 07:00 AM EDT. Under Article 5 of NATOs founding treaty, Washington has extended the protection of its nuclear umbrella to NATO nations, which means the U.S. would treat a nuclear attack on those countries in the same way it would an attack on American soil; in other words, it protects them by promising to retaliate in kind to any nuclear strikes on their territory. It would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by both sides, killing well over 100 million Americans and Russians. Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in. In this image made from video provided by Homs Media Centre, which has been verified and is consistent with other AP reporting, smoke rises after airstrikes by military jets in Talbiseh of the Homs province, western Syria, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population. U.S. Ukraine Counter-Offensive Will Be Like a 'Big Bang,' Says Military Expert Falling on May 9, it commemorates the Nazi surrender of World War II with a lavish spectacle meant to project might. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. But modern wars are not toe-to-toe conventional fights; geography, politics and terrain inevitably give one side an advantage. It is important for cooler heads to prevail and to provide diplomatic off-ramps for this conflict.. Concern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". Could our phones suddenly stop working, petrol stations run dry and food distribution get thrown into chaos? It's logistically complex. Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny says he faces life in jail over terror Video: As War Between Russia and Ukraine Continues in Europe, North Korea Appears To Be Rebuilding Its Nuclear Test Site (Veuer) The nuclear surprise attack, known as a "first strike," would . VideoThe secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, LGBT troops take love for Eurovision to front line, Why an Indian comedian is challenging fake news rules, What Europe's royals could teach King Charles. The nuclear surprise attack, known as a first strike, would primarily target Americas land-based nuclear arsenal. An expansion of the war to NATO remains unlikely but possible; the Russian use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable but not at all impossible. ", Russian soldiers stand in line to pay their last respect to Mikhail Kalashnikov, the designer of the iconic AK-47 assault rifle that was the favoured weapon of guerrillas worldwide, during his funeral ceremony in Mytishchi outside Moscow on December 27, 2013. "One of the ways to gain some quantitative mass back and to complicate adversaries' defence planning or attack planning is to pair human beings and machines," she says. Between Russia and the US alone, scientists concluded a nuclear war would kill 3.1 million people within 45 minutes. The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. Both the United States and Russia believe that a nuclear war is not winnable and should never be fought. The Potential of a 'Hot War' Between the U.S. and Russia The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Most importantly, the strike would preserve Washingtons ability to communicate with its nuclear forces. Russia has announced successful tests of its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, proclaiming that it can defeat any defences anywhere in the world. Over the summer China conducted tests of its advanced hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at many times the speed of sound. Putin's spokesman pointed on Tuesday to the Biden administration . "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call "World War III.". And those next five to 10 years could well see some of the most dangerous challenges to Western security. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. The Navy would begin hunting Russian missile submarines, including those that might be parked off the East and West Coasts of the U.S., armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Look Like? He added: "If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing.". Meanwhile, the Russian army, still predominantly a conscripted force, is being transitioned to an American-style professional force. For now, Obama shows no signs of conceding to Russian control the regions Ukraine has controlled for decades. Here's what it might look like. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine. As U.S. officials watch that unfold, they are "clearly motivated by concerns that at least locally, Russia has the potential to generate superior forces," said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official who is now a defense analyst at the RAND Corp. And looming over the entire U.S.-Russian relationship are their nuclear arsenals. So not just the military but societies overall will be a prime target in future conflict.". While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. The United Nations is accustomed to oddity, absurdity and a certain amount of hypocrisy. The Ukrainian military was on alert on its easter border with Russia on Thursday amid reports that separatist forces launched attacks on a border crossing near the village of Marinyvka. White House national security advisor describes what Russian - CNBC With much of Europe destroyed, NATO launches around 600 warheads from U.S.-land and submarine-based missiles at Russian nuclear forces. Early on the morning of Sept. 30, a Russian three-star general approached the American embassy in Baghdad, walked past a wall of well-armed Marines, to deliver face-to-face a diplomatic demarche to the United States. In the four-minute-long video, scientists play out a scenario where Russia is attempting to fight off members of NATO. Down goes the money for more traditional hardware and troop numbers. According to a recent report by international think tank Chatham House, Russia's military strength in its Western Military District stands at 65,000 ground troops, 850 pieces of artillery, 750 tanks, and 320 combat aircraft. Russian has lined thousands of troops and large tank and artillery units along its Ukrainian border. However, the U.S. does not have the same security relationship with Ukraine as it does with NATO member nations and allies such as South Korea and Japan. "We've got a ton of experience in low-intensity warfare, counterinsurgency warfare, whereas a bulk of the Ukraine experience is facing a 21st-century, near-peer adversary," said Army Lt. Col. Michael Kloepper, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, which recently began its third rotation into Ukraine to train that nation's military forces. "If we put our minds together and really invest in the right technologies, the right concepts, and we develop those with speed and scale, we should be able to deter great-power war," she says. by TNI Staff Here's What You Need To Know: Russia would need to size its invasion. Mad men, unbound by reality and a survival instinct, might also choose nuclear war. ", You can listen Frank Gardner's full report on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, guest-edited by General Sir Nick Carter, the former Chief of Defence Staff, Russia launches pre-dawn missile attack on Ukraine, Chaos at port as thousands rush to leave Sudan, Suspected IS chief killed in Syria, Turkey says. Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. He is a former Military Times Pentagon reporter and served as a Middle East correspondent for the Stars and Stripes. For the small cadre of U.S. military professionals who've been working alongside Ukrainian government forces, the fight against Russian-backed rebels is a major change from their recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. How long that can be sustained is unclear.That and other questions about Russian military capabilities and objectives are taking center stage as Putin shows a relentless willingness to use military force in a heavy-handed foreign policy aimed at restoring his nation's stature as a world power. Unlike conventional war, a nuclear war is not something that happens out of the blue. Defense News' Russia correspondent, Matthew Bodner, contributed to this report from Moscow. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. For example, he said, "one can look at the U.S. Navy as massively superior to the Russian navy. If U.S. forces routed their Russian counterparts and neared the Ukrainian-Russian border, Russia might target them with tactical nuclear weapons (typically 20,000 tons of TNT or less) to stop their advance. After all, there is little reason to trust Russia at this point. One factor that is likely to play a major role in future warfare is artificial intelligence - AI. Even a small-scale nuclear war between two smaller countries would have catastrophic consequences for the rest of the planet.